Rabu, 12 Februari 2014

Incentives, Make-Believe Money, and Pretend-to-be-a-day-trader Day

Incentives, Make-Believe Money, and Pretend-to-be-a-day-trader Day 
 
I worry sometimes, folks. Usually about things other than Bitcoin, because it needs time to mature and make its own mistakes. But still, sometimes I worry about it. My biggest fear for Bitcoin isn’t it flopping because the market doesn’t support it, because that simply means it isn’t  wanted by the populous. My fear for it is it not being used. What good is a currency that just sits in your wallet all day, every day, forever? I mean, it might as well be a piece of paper that says “I am worth something”  at that point.
Now, in chemistry class, we all learn about potential and kinetic energy. Potential energy is stored, while kinetic energy sets things in motion, and encourages more kinetic energy to build up. See what I’m getting at here? To popularize Bitcoin, you need to use it. Everyone needs to buy stuff. Maybe buy a few Christmas gift cards (because let’s be honest, there’s somebody out there that you need to get a gift for but you have no idea what they like) with Bitcoin instead of dollars. See if you can convince a local eatery to accept Bitcoin for some of their delicious food.
This integration into the publicly mundane, the real things people do on a day to day basis, is the most beneficial thing this currency could ask for, both in terms of stability and sustainability. Many users beside myself talk about the wonder and merriment that could come about if Bitcoin would be widely used. Now, why in the world are a significant amount of people going to use Bitcoin if the price is so volatile because people are playing stock trader with it?
Everyone seems to fancy themselves a financial expert when it comes to Bitcoin. “Oh, it’s gonna be at two thousand dollars by the end of the year, and soon, a million dollars!” Now, don’t take this as hypocritical, I’m simply taking two possible paths to their logical ends. If people decide to use Bitcoin as a commodity, it will act like one: unstable and high risk. If people use it as a currency, people will use it and see a slow rise in price, and with the slow continuous increase, people will take notice, especially if we continue to try and encourage smaller establishments to accept it, along with supporting those businesses who start because of it.
If we want to sit here in our internet clubhouses and play with our make-believe money, I’m sure we can. But, if we want to see it become a widely accepted and respected part of both the virtual and physical economy, then we must act like we want that. Currently, information on Bitcoin is fragmented, poorly organized, and often times nebulous. We have made great strides with simple how-to videos, and things like that, but there needs to be more. We need a streamlined process for those of the potential users that are frankly, technologically inept. Something that you can show them and go, “See, you get the app, and it’ll take you right through everything”. Hand-holding is key at these stages, and is something that is currently sorely lacking in Bitcoin’s current state.
Hand holding isn’t something we need to build into Bitcoin though, it’s something we build into the infrastructure around it. Although I don’t think the deep understanding many users often talk about is really needed to efficiently use Bitcoin. I mean, to be realistic here for a second, all the factors that have to be in line for me to use something are a.) I have to feel safe using it, b.) I have know how to send what where to get what I want, and c.) for things to happen as I expect them to 99.9% of the time. Currently with Bitcoin, we have about 1/2 of those 3 three things. Many people don’t feel safe using Bitcoin though.
We hear about break-ins, scams, and hacks constantly, and we should. These should be publicly known, but we need there to be less. These will be ironed over time, but there needs to be a serious improvement of many sites infrastructures to protect against these things. As far as scams go though, I simply have to advocate for the  public faces and accountability needed for any company I’m going to be working with. Just the same as when you buy something from a corner store, if it looks shady, you’ll probably not go there. We run into problems when you add the internet back in though. Not every scam site has looked shady. Many nowadays look clean and well designed. We need people looking into these new services constantly. Even if it looks good, you can’t avoid the truth of business records. Companies with poor or no records of incorporation should be highly scrutinized, and new users should be alerted to avoid them like the plague. We can’t eliminate the bad apples, but we can help the new users find the good ones.
I think my second point, needing to know how to send what where to get what I want, will be solved partly with time. We just need people to understand how these things works, and eventually many of them will get what they need to do to say, buy their morning coffee with Bitcoin. The other half of that problem will be solved with better design. More effectively directing users to what they need to do will help this, and better explaining what each part of their Bitcoin wallet does will help too.
Things do operate as we think they should for the most part though. Many new users, however, have skewed views of what should happen. Even a lot of senior members of the Bitcoin community are guilty of this. They think Bitcoin is just supposed to be some magic money machine that flies off into the sky and makes them a hefty sum. And that, of course, is complete and utter fantastical baloney. We will suffer ups and downs. We will soar off into new prices some days, and come crashing down others. Its the nature of a volatile market. It will happen, accept it, embrace it, and if the fire is too hot, well… You know the drill.
My final caveat on how a currency should comfortably operate is almost happening in Bitcoin. Every day we get closer to working out the basic bugs ironed out, like transactions permanently at zero confirmations, or orphaned blocks, or chain forking. Issues that are at the heart of Bitcoin will, with time, become nonissues. Again, this issue concerns time, but we are very much still in our development stage.
Overall, early adopters (a.k.a. most people reading this) shouldn’t be worried. We are experiencing the market. Bitcoin, and by extension alt-coins, will find their place in it with time. Continue to be cautious, yes. Continue to be a smart investor, yes. But for goodness sake, do your part and buy something this holiday season. I mean, what good are you doing by sitting on your coins, honestly?
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